Unless something changes, Twitter is doomed to the fringes of communication

You may have heard that 60% of the people who try Twitter for this first time shrug their shoulders and never go back to it. David Martin, Vice President of Primary Research at Neilsen Online offers some insight into what that means on Neilsen Wire. And what it means, basically, is that, despite the general giddiness about Twitter’s growth, if these retention numbers persist, Twitter will only achieve a reach of about 10%. Check out the full story for Martin’s statistical explanation of why this is so.

Of course, 10% of the online audience is a significant number of people, but it’s not mainstream. This is probably bad news for all the techies working 100 hours a week in their parents’ basements on Twitter-based apps and business plans while daydreaming about what they’re going to do with the $100 million that they’ll get when they sell out.

The trend could change, of course, but I wouldn’t bet on it unless Twitter finds a way to blossom into something a good deal more compelling that it is at the moment.