Team Coco – Your Outrage Cannot Be Monetized

January 28, 2010 at 5:15 am 5 comments

A reader—and not just any reader but the great Skip Tramontana–recently asked me to weigh in on the NBC/Jay Leno/Conan O’Brien imbroglio. I was not inclined to do so because so much has already been said about the cascade of bad decisions involved. No point in beating a dead talk show host. Whether there is any point in beating a dead network executive I leave you to work out among yourselves. (And before you send hate mail, I will point out that I am a fan of Mr. O’Brien’s; Mr. Leno merely makes me tired.)

All that being said, it does strike me that there is some wisdom about social media to be gleaned from this situation. A few points to consider—some obvious, some less so:

• NBC makes money when people watch its programs. No one makes money off the social media outrage that results when they make controversial decisions to change them. (Figure out a way to do so, and you’ll be able to buy a bigger jet than Larry and Sergey.)

• The decision to watch a late-night talk show is a significant commitment. Not an hour-long commitment. It’s a commitment that lasts years or even decades (See Carson, Johnny and Leno, Jay). It’s a habitual behavior. The commitment required to tweet about your displeasure is–what?–twenty-five seconds. Even if it could be monetized, it wouldn’t be worth much when stacked up against the commitment of people who have made watching a particular program every night for a number of years. Or in this case, the lack of such people.

• Yes, Conan’s numbers went up dramatically over the last couple of weeks of his tenure. So too will crowds gather around a burning building. What counts in the world of programs that are on every night is not whether they’re worth watching when the set is burning to the ground, but whether they’re worth watching when they’re ordinary. The evidence is that these were not.

Will Conan be able to convert the tweeters of outrage into ratings when he reemerges, most probably on Fox, and slaughter Leno, Letterman and all comers? Unlikely.

• From a purely demographic standpoint, Leno’s fans are more likely to make an appointment to watch every night at 11:30 than Conan’s fans. The younger the audience, the more absurd the idea of doing anything on someone else’s schedule.

• What the marketing industry is crying out for is a way to quantify the relative value of different types of media interactions based on the commitment level of the viewer. For example—for a pure lean-back experience (i.e., watching a television show or an online video), multiply the number of minutes spent by 1. If you forward that video to a friend, multiply the number of minutes spent by 2. For a lean-forward experience with some interactivity, multiply the number of minutes spent by 3. For a lean-forward experience that includes consumer’s pushing out of some form of content (e.g. a tweet, blog post, etc.), multiply the number of minutes spent by 4. Whether these number are right, I haven’t the slightest idea. I leave the math to the great Michael Fassnacht and other propeller-heads of his ilk.

Whoever gets it right will be a billionaire. He/she can mail me a check whenever it is convenient.

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5 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Coco Chanel  |  January 29, 2010 at 4:15 pm

    Smart money would have Conan talking about any and everything he thinks is valuable (in the way of products) while his pass-along value is greatest. The social media support is for Conan, not for any particular show or skit or even joke. Just Conan, the guy.

    No need for Conan to shill – I’m sure he brushes his teeth with something and coiffes that magnificent ‘do with hair product. Inquiring minds want to know, and the smart money got to him long before now.

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